European Observatory to Combat Radicalization – EOCR
Counterterrorism ـ Are Covert Iranian Cells Active in Germany?
The ongoing war in the Gulf region and the Middle East, which erupted following Israeli and U.S. strikes on targets in Iran, is a source of deep concern for many in Germany. Although Germany is not a direct party to the conflict, its political, security, and economic repercussions naturally extend into the country. For this reason, emergency meetings and consultations are being held at various levels of government, both at the federal level and among the states, in addition to coordination with security and intelligence agencies. These meetings include continuous assessments of potential risks, including the possible domestic consequences should the war persist or expand regionally. Federal and state interior ministers, among others, have convened to discuss developments, and security monitoring has been heightened around a number of sensitive sites across the country.
Has the security situation changed as a result of the war?
It is difficult to determine whether there has been an immediate and fundamental shift in the security situation, as this largely depends on the duration of the war and the nature of its evolution. The longer the conflict continues or the more it expands, the greater the likelihood of repercussions within Germany. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution expects a continued high level of abstract threat to institutions in Germany that maintain close ties with Israel and the United States. This includes embassies, diplomatic missions, military bases, and related facilities. Jewish institutions, such as schools, synagogues, and cultural centers, are also considered potential targets for retaliatory or inciting acts, whether by extremist individuals or organized networks.
In such circumstances, German authorities typically adopt precautionary measures, including strengthening security around sensitive facilities, increasing patrols, and intensifying intelligence surveillance. Information is also exchanged with European and international partners to monitor any cross-border threats. The government seeks to reassure citizens that the relevant agencies are closely monitoring the situation and are prepared to respond to any potential escalation. Nevertheless, concerns remain about the possibility of isolated incidents that are difficult to predict, particularly amid rising inflammatory rhetoric on social media platforms.
How do Iranians living in Germany view the war?
A large number of people of Iranian origin live in Germany, with estimates placing their number at around 324,000, including German citizens of Iranian descent as well as residents holding Iranian nationality. Many of them aspire to political change in Iran, particularly those who left the country for political reasons or in search of better opportunities. A significant number have obtained German citizenship and have become politically, economically, and culturally integrated into German society.
However, it cannot be assumed that there is a unified position among them regarding the current military escalation. Some believe that external pressure could weaken the system in Tehran, while others fear that war may strengthen hardline currents domestically and increase suffering among the civilian population. Over the past fifteen years, individuals from various political and ideological backgrounds have come to Germany seeking asylum, reflecting considerable diversity in views and perspectives within the Iranian community. At the beginning of 2025, slightly more than 161,000 Iranian nationals were living in Germany, in addition to a large number of naturalized citizens.
How many supporters of the Iranian leadership live in Germany?
It is difficult to determine an exact figure for supporters of the Iranian leadership in Germany, but estimates suggest they constitute a minority among residents of Iranian origin. In recent years, German authorities have taken measures against institutions considered close to Tehran. In July 2024, the Federal Ministry of the Interior banned the Islamic Center Hamburg, known by its acronym IZH. At the time, then Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser of the Social Democratic Party of Germany described the center as “a prominent Iranian propaganda hub in Europe.”
The center operated the Blue Mosque overlooking Hamburg’s Outer Alster Lake, a well-known religious landmark in the city. The ban sparked political and legal debate, as a lawsuit was filed against it and the case remains pending before the Federal Administrative Court. A few months after the ban, the head of the center, Mohammad Hadi Mofatteh, was deported after ultimately leaving Germany voluntarily. He was subsequently barred from entering and residing in Germany for twenty years. Authorities stress that these measures target specific activities and not the Iranian community as a whole.
What activities are attributed to Iranian agents and “sleeper cells” in Germany?
According to assessments by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Iran has drawn attention in Germany in recent years through several types of activities.
First, monitoring the Iranian diaspora, particularly regime opponents. Concerns extend beyond the risk of arrest upon travel to Iran, as in some cases family members inside the country may face pressure or intimidation. Such practices are viewed as attempts to influence the activities of opposition figures abroad.
Second, espionage targeting Jewish and Israeli sites. Following an arson attack on a school in the city of Bochum, where the original target was a nearby synagogue, the German government summoned the Iranian ambassador at the time in protest. In December 2023, the Higher Regional Court of Düsseldorf sentenced a German-Iranian man to two years and nine months in prison after convicting him in connection with the crime. The court expressed its conviction that Iranian authorities were behind the arson attack, further escalating diplomatic tensions between the two countries.
Third, cyberattacks and attempts to obtain technology and products subject to sanctions. Reports indicate that entities linked to Iran seek to circumvent imposed restrictions through cyber espionage operations or intermediaries. Germany addresses these threats within a broader framework aimed at protecting its digital and industrial infrastructure.
These developments underscore the extent to which regional conflicts are intertwined with domestic security in Germany. Although the country is not a direct party to the war, its political position, international relationships, and social diversity make it closely attentive to every development. The future trajectory remains tied to the course of the conflict itself and to the ability of the parties involved to contain the escalation and prevent its spillover into other arenas.
European Observatory to Combat Radicalization – EOCR
