European Observatory to Combat Radicalization

By Georgia Papadopoulos Holmer/ OSCE

Violent extremism and terrorism have been, and continue to be, significant threats and sources of conflict and instability in the OSCE area. While the impact of the current COVID-19 pandemic on the scope and nature of these threats is not yet fully understood, several distinct trends will be important to track. These trends suggest a renewed and focused role for the international community in helping states address these challenges effectively.

Capitalizing on fear and uncertainty to advance violent objectives

Violent extremist movements and terrorist organizations – to include violent Islamist groups and violent far right organizations – have shown intent to capitalize on the vulnerability, fear and uncertainty generated by the pandemic to advance their objectives, galvanize recruits, and promote hatred and violent action. Violent extremist groups have been actively promoting conspiracy theories around the inception of the COVID-19 crisis, focusing blame on minority groups, including migrants, and undermining trust in governments. There have been increased online efforts to groom and recruit individuals, taking advantage of the higher level of internet usage and feelings of insecurity and isolation during the pandemic. Analysts are also observing an increase in hate speech online and efforts to circulate “fake news”, disinformation and misinformation about the virus in order to encourage violent hate crimes, or even to accelerate its spread.

Developing new operational capacities

There is concern that terrorists may develop new operational capacities and targets in response the pandemic, presenting an increased risk to “soft” targets and critical infrastructure. In addition to the potential use of the virus itself as a weapon (although it is questionable how much of a threat this may truly be), terrorists may harness their agendas to the increasing criminal activity currently underway online to conduct disruptive and destructive attacks. They may do this by capitalizing on the increased number of financial fraud and exploitation schemes, and focusing on new targets of opportunity such as hospitals and crowded food distribution centres.

Filling the public health void

There is evidence that some violent non-state actors are stepping in to provide support to those who lack access to health services, in an effort to legitimize their goals and extend their influence. While this dynamic has most traction, and precedence, in weakly governed or failed states outside the OSCE area, it underscores the challenges all governments face in managing an effective response to the pandemic and how vulnerable they are to malign and destabilizing influences at this time.

The human rights crisis in state responses to COVID-19

Perhaps most importantly from the perspective of the international community, is the increasing number of states who are normalizing exceptional powers in response to the health crisis in ways that do not uphold human rights obligations. Violations of fundamental freedoms combined with a lack of, or inequitable access to, services can contribute to the grievances that make individuals vulnerable to recruitment into violent groups. From a security perspective, it is important to consider the potential negative long-term impacts of state responses to the pandemic, and the ways in which they may create conditions conducive to violent extremism and radicalization that lead to terrorism (VERLT).

Conclusion

The OSCE has been at the forefront of promoting preventative and whole-of-society approaches to VERLT. This includes supporting the role of community and religious leaders, educators, psycho-social care providers, local governments, the media, and parents in promoting pathways away from violence by teaching tolerance, supporting critical thinking skills, providing emotional support and helping youth become engaged and productive members of society. It also includes promoting trust between police and communities and ensuring co-operative working partnerships between civil society and governments. These efforts are particularly critical during this period of increased vulnerability, isolation and uncertainly in which youth are exposed to misinformation, hatred and violent ideologies both on and offline.

Our collective commitment to a proportionate and measured response to terrorism and the importance of the rule of law is more critical now than ever and the international community plays a vital role in advocating, supporting and promoting a human rights-approach to countering and addressing terrorism and violent extremism. The OSCE has consistently promoted a measured and proportionate response to emerging and evolving terrorist threats, a message ever more important during this period of global vulnerability. Our work to promote peace and security, the rule of law and human rights is all the more relevant now.