Threat to global peace from Isis rising, UN chief warns

• Islamic State taking advantage of disruption caused by Covid-19 pandemic
• Isis and affiliates expanding in Africa, group plotting comeback in Iraq and Syria

 Scmp – United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres says in a new report that the threat to international peace and security from Islamic State is rising, pointing to an “alarming” expansion of its affiliates in Africa and its focus on a comeback in its former self-declared “caliphate” in Syria and Iraq. The report to the UN Security Council, which was circulated Tuesday, said Isis and other terrorist groups have taken advantage of “the disruption, grievances and development setbacks” caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, both on the ground and online. While lockdowns in non-conflict areas suppressed terrorist activity, in conflict areas where pandemic restrictions have less impact the threat from Isis, also known by its Arabic acronym Daesh, “has already increased”, Guterres said.

“As pandemic-related restrictions gradually ease, there is an elevated near-term threat of Daesh-inspired attacks outside conflict zones by lone actors or small groups that have been radicalised, incited and possibly directly remotely online,” he said. The UN chief said this exemplifies a wider and evolving risk from the accelerated use of digital technologies during the pandemic, and the potential for “new and emerging technologies to be used for terrorist purposes”. In assessing the Isis threat, Guterres said its leader, Amir Muhammad Sa’id Abdal-Rahman al-Mawla, “remains reluctant to communicate directly with supporters” and “the group’s command and control over its global affiliates has loosened, even though it continues to provide guidance and some financial support”.

He said the autonomy of regional affiliates has strengthened especially in West Africa and the Sahel, East and Central Africa, Afghanistan and South Asia. This evolution will be an important factor in Isis’ future global impact, he quoted unidentified UN member states as saying. Member states also assess that the extremist group “will continue to prioritise regrouping and seeking resurgence” in Iraq and Syria as its core area of operations, he said. The 16-page report, prepared by Security Council counterterrorism committee and by experts monitoring sanctions on Isis, said the group remains active in wide swathes of Syria, where it is seeking to rebuild its combat capabilities and expand its insurgency.

Guterres said Isis wages hit-and-run operations against checkpoints from hideouts on both sides of the Euphrates River in the eastern province of Deir el-Zour and continues operations against government forces and in the Syrian desert. In Iraq, Isis remains under constant counterterrorism pressure but continues to carry out hit-and-run operations “seeking to undermine critical infrastructure projects, inflame sectarian divisions and communal grievances and generate media coverage,” he said.

As for the extremist group’s finances, the UN chief said estimates of financial reserves available to Isis in Iraq and Syria range between US$25 million and US$50 million, with one unidentified UN member state saying most funds are in Iraq.  The secretary general said the most striking development in the first half of 2021 has been the expansion of Isis in Africa, where terrorist groups have inflicted the largest number of casualties. He said some of the most effective Isis affiliates are spreading their influence and activities from Mali into Burkina Faso and Niger, from Nigeria into Niger, Chad and Cameroon, and from Mozambique into Tanzania.

In Afghanistan, he said, the Isis affiliate has expanded its presence in several provinces and in and around the capital Kabul, “despite leadership, human and financial losses during 2020”. In Kabul, most of its attacks have targeted minorities, civil society actors, government employees and security forces, he said. In Isis’ efforts to regroup and rebuild in Afghanistan, Guterres said the group has prioritised the recruitment and training of new supporters and hopes to attract Taliban members and other militants who reject the US-Taliban agreement as well as fighters from Iraq.

Estimates of Isis strength in Afghanistan range widely, from 500 to 1,500 fighters, with one unidentified UN member state saying its strength may rise to 10,000 in the medium term, he said. Guterres said UN member states have already warned “that Daesh could regain the ability to orchestrate international attacks if either its core or one of its regional affiliates became strong enough”. “This scenario has only become more plausible,” the UN chief warned.